This is a quick piece here on the labor participation rate, following up on the piece I wrote last week about the jobs numbers not being consistent with recession. Mike Shedlock at Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis and Bill McBride at Calculated Risk have put up posts with opposing views on the now marked decline in US labor force participation.
The question is why is this labor force participation rate falling so steeply. Mish looks at some predictions for the rates fall as the US population ages and he finds a much more accelerated fall than was predicted. In his view this supports the view that much of the fall is recession- or economy-driven. Bill McBride looks at the 35-44 year-old cohort and finds no statistical anomalies in the falloff in labor participation and concludes that ...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.