A quick post here. Sober Look has posted on Citigroup's economic surprise index, noting that it has started to roll over again, ever so slightly. But the trend is clear for the past two to three months and it has been sharply higher, meaning economic data surprises are much more positive than they were two months ago.
In terms of economic sentiment, I think this is a significant boost for President Obama going into the election. And consumer sentiment surveys have consistently demonstrated this. The President has also seen his poll numbers increasing.
Given the increase in the surprise index, the data are not suggesting recession is on the horizon because you would expect to see negative surprises leading to economic data revisions to the downside if that were the case. So recession is...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.