As you may know two of my ten surprises for 2012 revolved around the Chinese Australian nexus. Here's what I wrote in January in my first Credit Writedowns Pro post:
China will have a hard landing: I have a tough time on this one. But in keeping with the 50% odds when everyone else gives it one in three, I think China is the big story here. People who aren’t in the thrall of the China bull story know that the malinvestment there has reached breathtaking proportions. And with a second synchronised global growth slowdown in the last five years forming, China will get hit just as its over-investment bubble is popping. There are only so many losses it can socialise while its export and banking sectors are hit at the same time. The stimulus won’t be enough to ...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.