Editor's note: this post has been updated to reflect corrections to an error in the database used to calculate personal income and personal consumption expenditures for the 2011-12 time period. Originally, these numbers were flat. However, the correction shows a nominal increase in the range of 3 to 4%. We apologise for the error.
Just to put some meat on the bones around the cyclical downturn turning into recession, the personal income data paints a negative picture absent debt accumulation. Originally, the data were much worse than I anticipated but this was due to an error in the spreadsheets that I was using. Now I can see that the data are more benign and that recession is not imminent as ECRI says, but the data are building in that direction.
What we see in recessions is that ...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.