The latest economic and political news out of Europe is quite discouraging. As you know, my base case for Europe is now a disorderly breakup because I believe events on the ground are moving quicker than politicians can adjust. Recent events bear this out.
In France, the country slipped into economic contraction in Q2, while Greece is expected to shrink 6.9% this year. Most of this can be laid at the feet of shrinking public and private sectors at the same time. The EU, for instance, expected Greek growth to be above EU growth as late as December 2008.
Meanwhile the flight out of periphery assets continues with Denmark, Switzerland, and Germany all seeing negative yields as a result. Europe has needed something to stop the bank runs. But the EuroTARP deal hammered out last w...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.