The Empire State Manufacturing numbers showed greater growth for both production and employment than in the previous survey. These are the kind of numbers that are supportive of recovery. Nevertheless, the peak in disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditure growth in the US was over a year ago. i find it hard to believe that we could turn this cycle in the other direction absent some sort of exogenous policy change that boosted private sector net financial assets. To put that in plain speak: I think the cycle is in the process of rolling over, and has been since early 2011. Once the roll over begins, it continues until we hit a recession.
So, just weeding out all the day-to-day noise, you need to focus in on the fact that every country in the world is showing s...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.