Daily:On a bullish Empire State Survey within the synchronised global slowdown

The Empire State Manufacturing numbers showed greater growth for both production and employment than in the previous survey. These are the kind of numbers that are supportive of recovery. Nevertheless, the peak in disposable personal income and personal consumption expenditure growth in the US was over a year ago. i find it hard to believe that we could turn this cycle in the other direction absent some sort of exogenous policy change that boosted private sector net financial assets. To put that in plain speak: I think the cycle is in the process of rolling over, and has been since early 2011. Once the roll over begins, it continues until we hit a recession.

So, just weeding out all the day-to-day noise, you need to focus in on the fact that every country in the world is showing s...


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