I thought now would be a good time to see how my ten surprises for 2012 are tracking as we are nearly a third of the way through the year. These are events that have 1-in-3 odds of happening but which I believe have a more than 50 percent likelihood of occurring in 2012.
Greek investors finally take their writedowns: This has already happened although the workout phase is still occurring. But this prediction has proved accurate. Bingo.
Romney will be elected President: My thinking here was that the Republicans can’t win if the economy holds and that the Republicans also cannot win with anyone but Romney. My sense was that the economy would not hold, however. So far, Obama is leading in the polls by 6 or 7 percent. if the economy holds, he should win. Not tracking yet.
As this site is now reader-supported via Patreon, the remainder of this article is only available to subscribers at a specific patronage level. Articles at patronage levels BRONZE, SILVER, and GOLD are denoted by the categories in blue capital letters above the post. Posts categorized DAILY are available to both SILVER and GOLD patrons.
Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.