This week's newsletter was originally going to be on forecasting outcomes in the European sovereign debt crisis. However, as I began to write, I realised that much of this hinged on Spain. So I want to discuss Spain first because Spain is in big trouble and its policy prescriptions are going to make things worse. In my view, the potential for downside economic and portfolio risk has increased markedly as we realise that Spain is at risk and there is no plan B in the euro zone. This is very serious because Spain is an enormous economy. Spain could well become the euro zone's defining issue.
A short history on Spanish debt
Before the financial crisis, Spain had a booming economy. Along with Ireland, Spain was seen as one of the fast-growing "tiger" economies of Europe, almost...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.