Daily commentary: On negative German data surprises

I have been saying that I expect German data to disappoint and come in on the softer side. Why? German Ifo numbers suggest improving business confidence even though German data has been relatively weak.

For example, German retail sales for February were weak as were the German PMI numbers. Germany printed 48.4 which is below the expansion divide. Just today, we got further confirmation of the weakness in the data with German manufacturing shrinking at the largest pace since 2009. Either the German businessmen know something that we don't or their confidence is completely misguided. I am betting it is more the latter than the former. And so while I think German numbers will hold up well compared to the rest of the euro zone, they will come in below expectations.

After all, I did say ...

As this site is now reader-supported via Patreon, the remainder of this article is only available to subscribers at a specific patronage level. Articles at patronage levels BRONZE, SILVER, and GOLD are denoted by the categories in blue capital letters above the post. Posts categorized DAILY are available to both SILVER and GOLD patrons.

Click here to join. Your readership is greatly appreciated!

Registered users can log in by entering details here or below.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More