Daily commentary: On Dutch Austerity

As I write this the lower house of Dutch Parliament is debating what and where to cut in order to get their budget under the 3% hurdle as quickly as possible. It is now clear from a number of the details coming from the Dutch press that the Dutch will not make the 3% hurdle in 2012 and what they are trying to do now is get under the hurdle by 2013 instead. So just as with the Spanish and Italians before them, the Dutch are set to miss their targets. They have already been punished with credit watch negative by the ratings agency Fitch. The hope is that this deal is enough to see them through. Nationalist leader Geert Wilders used the parliamentary debate as an opportunity to say that his PVV party "will do everything we can to make the September elections a referendum over the Euro, the EU and Brussels".

I think this all speaks to the growing backlash against austerity in the EU. Perhaps we are witnessing a real change in the policy agenda. I don’t know. But I tend to think any changes will be at the margin and we will be in a for a long hard slog. Still doesn’t mean underweight for European shares but Europe will continue to underperform economically.


By the way, if I haven’t pointed this out already, just because a post is in the links doesn’t mean I endorse the commentary. It just means this is topical reading that informed investors and economy watchers need to have.

That’s it. Here are the links.

  • China’s property boom has peaked, forever – Telegraph Blogs
  • Why Won’t Germany Turn? Joseph Halevi’s insightful analysis, circa 1995 « Yanis Varoufakis
  • Watch out! Is the Fed pushing us into another bubble? – The Term Sheet: Fortune’s deals blog Term Sheet
  • Brussels to relax 3pc fiscal targets as revolt spreads – Telegraph
  • Bernanke: U.S. is not Japan, and I have not changed my mind | MacroScope
  • ECB chief Mario Draghi calls for euro ‘growth compact’ – Telegraph
  • Apple: $1,111 Per Share and a $1 Trillion Market Cap in the Next Year – John Paczkowski – News – AllThingsD
  • U.S. Financial Comfort Falls to New Low
  • U.S. Homeownership Hits Decade Low
  • Management Secrets: Core Beliefs of Great Bosses | Inc.com
  • Never-before-seen photos from 100 years ago tell vivid story of gritty New York City | Mail Online
  • Lessons from Sheryl Sandberg: Stop Working More Than 40 Hours a Week | Inc.com
  • Renters Scramble in Heated San Francisco Market – WSJ.com
  • Czech government faces vote of confidence after protests over austerity | World news | guardian.co.uk
  • Surviving ‘Taxmageddon’ Without Maiming Economy – Bloomberg
  • Lotte ages 12 years in Frans Hofmeester’s time lapse video – latimes.com
  • Macro and Other Market Musings: The Bernanke Conundrum and Level Targeting
  • What is Kirchner Doing in Argentina? | Global Economic Intersection
  • No, Mr. Krugman, Bernanke’s Conundrum is Completely Different | | New Economic PerspectivesNew Economic Perspectives
  • Mirabile Dictu! Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein Makes Case for Breaking Up Big Banks « naked capitalism
  • EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » Argentina: The Rise of NeoCorporatism
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    Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

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