There was a lot of bad economic data outside of the United States today. Europe is awful. Ireland is back in recession as the global growth slowdown has hit exports there. They join Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal and Greece in recession in the euro zone. Even Germany printed a sub-50 PMI number. Denmark, outside of euro land, has its own problems with the central bank now warning about sky high household debt levels there.
I continue to expect weak industrial production and export numbers from Germany. Their major export markets are all slowing including China, where they thought they could diversify away from the euro zone. Unless we see a fall in domestic business/household savings, the lower German exports will translate into negative federal budget surprises. You can see ...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.