A lot of the data coming through in recent weeks shows the US recovery will continue for a bit. I caught two or three data points in the links today about this so I wanted to flag it for the daily commentary.
Here's my take: the secular move up in debt cannot continue for households without income growth. That means that this particular cycle will be short unless the jobs numbers we are seeing now translate into income for consumers and a sustained recovery that causes the economy to add 400 or 500,000 jobs monthly. Joe Stiglitz had a good piece in the FT that is in the links. He says:
Let's assume that job creation continues at the rate of 225,000 jobs a month. That is only about 100,000 beyond the number required to provide jobs for the average monthly number of new entrants in...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.