Daily Commentary: The macro surprise index is mean-reverting

I have only brief comments on one thing today. Barclays Capital has a US Macro Data Surprise Index and it was at all time highs in February. Andy Lees of AML Macro Limited noted in his morning note that it hit that high but has since dipped. He also noted that the 50-day moving average for the index hit an all time high in February as well. I think this is significant for a number of reasons.

First, let's talk first derivative and second derivative here for a second. We should assume that the surprise index's hitting highs in February means that the data coming in at that time was the best relative to expectations and so the macro numbers like GDP and corporate earnings should also likely be the best relative to expectations on the back of this. This means that the numbers now coming ou...


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