Poll: Can China avoid a hard landing?

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There are a lot of different opinions on this one. What’s yours?

[polldaddy poll=5829318]

*I am defining hard landing in China as a slowdown in economic growth to 5% annualised or less in any quarter.

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4 Comments
  1. Anonymous says

    China is not America, or the UK, or Europe.  And its finances don’t resemble theirs in any way.  “Laws” that govern our finances don’t govern China’s, for many reasons.  To list a few:
    1.  Reserves of foreign currencies are plentiful and growing.
    2.  China’s currency is entirely under its own control.
    3.  China’s sovereign debt, at 40% of GDP, is one of the lowest on earth.
    4.  China’s government doesn’t just control the strategic heights of its economy, it OWNS them.  Banks, insurance companies, media, etc.
    5.  Chinese home ownership is 90%.  Most homes were purchased outright, for cash.  No one has ever purchased one with less than 30% deposit.  Second and third homes require 60% and 100% cash.
    6.  Hong Kong has been through many of these booms and busts, and for similar reasons.  Hong Kong–along with its highly gifted administrators and their experience, is part of China.
    7.  The Chinese economy is growing even faster than the official figure of 7-9%.  That rising tide will lift even stranded boats.  Developers and lenders know this.  The Chinese are patient.
    8.  This slowdown, unlike our own, was planned.
    9.  China is a unified, coherent nation and civilisation.  Its government is trusted (Edelman) and admired (Pew) by 86% of the people.  They’ll cooperate, willingly, with government policies.  They’ll grumble because they’re people, but they’ll cooperate because they’re Chinese who, as Kissinger pointed out, “are smarter than us.”

  2. frank r says

    150 years ago, the Westerner humiliated the Chinese by getting them addicted to pium. Now, the Chinese are determined to turn the tables and humiliate the West by getting them addicted to cheap manufactured goods. They will not stumble until they have achieved this goal, and that is still some ways off. Whatever paperwork problems the Chinese have can be resolved overnight. Just print up some money, declare existing debts invalid, whatever. Anyone who protests, shoot them and sell their body parts to the highest bidder. And who would protest anyway? Surely not the poor masses. Only the rich would protest against loss of some of their accumulated hoard of credits. But the rich don’t control the military, which is the ultimate power. The military is tightly controlled by the communist elite, who are neither rich nor poor, and who are also quite few in number, so it is easy to insulate them from any pain felt by the rich or poor. The communist elite will ruthlessly do whatever it takes to keep China on the growth path towards eventually being as rich and powerful as the West.

    People who think a hard landing is inevitable are confused by the slow-moving governments of the west, which are slow-moving and dysfunctional on purpose, because that suits the rich creditor class which controls these government. China is a different beast entirely.

  3. frank r says

    150 years ago, the Westerner humiliated the Chinese by getting them addicted to pium. Now, the Chinese are determined to turn the tables and humiliate the West by getting them addicted to cheap manufactured goods. They will not stumble until they have achieved this goal, and that is still some ways off. Whatever paperwork problems the Chinese have can be resolved overnight. Just print up some money, declare existing debts invalid, whatever. Anyone who protests, shoot them and sell their body parts to the highest bidder. And who would protest anyway? Surely not the poor masses. Only the rich would protest against loss of some of their accumulated hoard of credits. But the rich don’t control the military, which is the ultimate power. The military is tightly controlled by the communist elite, who are neither rich nor poor, and who are also quite few in number, so it is easy to insulate them from any pain felt by the rich or poor. The communist elite will ruthlessly do whatever it takes to keep China on the growth path towards eventually being as rich and powerful as the West.

    People who think a hard landing is inevitable are confused by the slow-moving governments of the west, which are slow-moving and dysfunctional on purpose, because that suits the rich creditor class which controls these government. China is a different beast entirely.

  4. frank r says

    (something wrong, system posted three times)

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