The jobs numbers just came out at 830 this morning. They were above consensus if 155K for an add at +200K. This was a good number as the unemployment rate fell to 8.5%. I think the consensus view is that the tide is turning in the US, that the economy is finally bouncing back. If true, that's a boon for Obama in 2012.
The US is a continental country, meaning that its economy is mostly domestic with only a small percentage coming from outside via trade. That makes the US much less beholden to external demand than countries like Germany that are export-led. That said, I still see the odds of a recession in 2012 as high given the global backdrop. However, if the US avoids dramatic federal government budget cuts that suck money out of the economy, the US will do better than Europe. That...
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Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He has also been a regular economic and financial commentator in print and on television for the past decade. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.