Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2012
As always, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for the year – this time for 2012. He is bullish yet again – on both the US and emerging markets.
Wien defines these surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which he believes have a more than 50 percent likelihood of occurring in 2012. His lists since the credit crisis have not fared as well because he has been too bullish.
- Crude oil falls to $85 a barrel.
- S&P 500 exceeds 1,400.
- U.S. real GDP growth exceeds 3%, unemployment rate drops below 8%.
- Barack Obama runs against Mitt Romney for president, Democrats win House, lose Senate.
- Europe develops a broad plan to solve the sovereign-debt crisis. Greece and Italy restructure their debt. Spain and Ireland strengthen their finances. A bank meltdown is avoided. European economy contracts.
- Computer hackers attack major financial institutions.
- Investors buy currencies of countries “that seem to be managing their economies sensibly,” such as nations in Scandinavia, Australia, Singapore and Korea.
- Congress reduces the U.S. debt by $1.2 trillion over 10 years, with cuts to defense, Medicare and agricultural subsidies as well as some tax deductions.
- Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is ousted.
- Stock indexes in China, India and Brazil surge 15%-20%