What US GDP and jobless claims say about the US economy

We got two good proxies for the economic trajectory in the US this morning at 830 AM. Jobless claims were 402,000 with the 4-week moving average now settling in at 405,500. GDP rose an annualized 2.5% in the third quarter according to the government’s advanced estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP had risen 1.3%.

As I said in the recent Fedex post, “Q3 GDP growth will be decent (+2.0%) and Q4 growth will be weak but not recessionary. After that, it is anyone’s guess.” These numbers confirm this is where we are. 2.5% GDP growth is pretty good for this economy. However, I expect growth to slow in Q4. I also expect a recession in 2012. Although I would not say it is inevitable.

1 Comment
  1. fresno dan says

    I am really getting very cynical about GDP (Aren’t you cynical about everything fresno dan??? Uh…um….rubs foot in dirt…yeah)

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/great-american-false-dilemma-austerity-vs-stimulus/64249

    You know, if there was a stimulas program to do mass amputations, the more arms and legs we cut off, the bigger the GDP numbers….We’d be RICH, RICH!!! I could buy that fur sink I always wanted….
    HOLD IT! I wouldn’t be able to wash my hands….

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