What US GDP and jobless claims say about the US economy

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We got two good proxies for the economic trajectory in the US this morning at 830 AM. Jobless claims were 402,000 with the 4-week moving average now settling in at 405,500. GDP rose an annualized 2.5% in the third quarter according to the government’s advanced estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP had risen 1.3%.

As I said in the recent Fedex post, “Q3 GDP growth will be decent (+2.0%) and Q4 growth will be weak but not recessionary. After that, it is anyone’s guess.” These numbers confirm this is where we are. 2.5% GDP growth is pretty good for this economy. However, I expect growth to slow in Q4. I also expect a recession in 2012. Although I would not say it is inevitable.

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1 Comment
  1. fresno dan says

    I am really getting very cynical about GDP (Aren’t you cynical about everything fresno dan??? Uh…um….rubs foot in dirt…yeah)

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/great-american-false-dilemma-austerity-vs-stimulus/64249

    You know, if there was a stimulas program to do mass amputations, the more arms and legs we cut off, the bigger the GDP numbers….We’d be RICH, RICH!!! I could buy that fur sink I always wanted….
    HOLD IT! I wouldn’t be able to wash my hands….

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