What US GDP and jobless claims say about the US economy
We got two good proxies for the economic trajectory in the US this morning at 830 AM. Jobless claims were 402,000 with the 4-week moving average now settling in at 405,500. GDP rose an annualized 2.5% in the third quarter according to the government’s advanced estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP had risen 1.3%.
As I said in the recent Fedex post, “Q3 GDP growth will be decent (+2.0%) and Q4 growth will be weak but not recessionary. After that, it is anyone’s guess.” These numbers confirm this is where we are. 2.5% GDP growth is pretty good for this economy. However, I expect growth to slow in Q4. I also expect a recession in 2012. Although I would not say it is inevitable.