ECRI Weekly Index falls to a 56-week low of -6.9

This comes via the ECRI website:

A measure of future U.S.economic growth rose slightly in the latest week, but its annualized growth rate continued to fall, indicating the economy is about to slow, a research group said on Friday.The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.9 in the week ended June 18, up from 122.4 the prior week, originally reported as 122.5.

The index’s annualized growth rate fell to minus 6.9 percent from a revised minus 5.8 percent, originally reported as minus 5.7 percent. That was its lowest level since May 22, 2009, when it stood at minus 8.7 percent. "After falling for six weeks, the uptick in the level of the Weekly Leading Index suggests some tentative stabilization, but the continuing decline in its growth rate to a 56-week low underscores the inevitability of the slowdown," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.

The economy is still growing but signs of a slowdown are increasing in spite of the uptick in the number. The longer annualized growth of this index remains negative, the more worried policy makers should be.

Note: The title of this post erroneously pointed to last week’s revised -5.8 figure as the number for this week. The reading for this week was -6.9.

9 Comments
  1. Karen says

    What is an “annualized growth rate” of a weekly statistic? Is this just the YOY number (122.9/value for week ending 6/19/09, minus 1)?

    Thanks…

    1. Edward Harrison says

      That’s my error. It should read “annual” i.e. year-on-year change.

      1. Karen says

        Thanks! And it wasn’t your error, their press release used that “annualized” terminology.

        But wouldn’t a decrease in the YOY growth rate occurring simultaneously with a recent weekly uptick say more about what was happening in June 2009 than about what is happening now? I.e., the year-ago uptick (June 19 2009 vs June 12 2009) must have been bigger than the current uptick (June 18 2010 vs June 11 2010).

  2. Daniel says

    hm…and the german economy continues to surprise to the upside, at least until now.

    Regierung muss weniger neue Schulden machen

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,702024,00.html

    DIW: Wirtschaft schafft im Frühjahr stärkstes Wachstum seit 2008

    http://de.reuters.com/article/economicsNews/idDEBEE65O0K920100625

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