2010 elections: “Completely out of control” for Democrats

The bailouts, deficit spending, and debate over health care are having a very nasty negative effect on the electoral fortunes of the Democratic party. Charlie Cook, a well-known and respected election pundit, writes (emphasis added):

…President Obama’s job approval rating in both their August 16-18 and August 17-19 averages was just 51 percent, the lowest level of his presidency. The latter sampling showed his disapproval up to 42 percent, matching his all-time low hit in the August 15-17 tracking poll…

These data confirm anecdotal evidence, and our own view, that the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report’s Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low.

Many veteran Congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats. A new Gallup poll that shows Congress’ job disapproval at 70 percent among independents should provide little solace to Democrats. In the same poll, Congressional approval among independents is at 22 percent, with 31 percent approving overall, and 62 percent disapproving.

That all of this is happening against a backdrop of an economy that appears to be rebounding and a resurgent stock market underscores how much the President’s and his party’s legislative agenda have contributed to these poor poll numbers.

We believe it would be a mistake to underestimate the impact that this mood will have on Members of Congress of both parties when they return to Washington in September, if it persists through the end of the Congressional recess.

If you are losing support even while the economic situation and stock market are improving, you are obviously doing something wrong.

6 Comments
  1. doctorx says

    They are doing something wrong. See a Quinnipiac poll out of Florida: 77% think that protesting in town meetings is not un-American (excuse the dbl-negative pls), and most approve of the protests
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/public_opinion_polls/topic/health_care_town_halls/

    IMO most people do NOT see the economy improving. According to Gallup, URL = http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
    59% see the economy as worsening and 35% see it as improving. 48% see economic conditions as poor and only 11% see them as good/excellent. More people still blame GW Bush for the depression than BHO, but at current trend, next month the #s may be even.

    Also IMO the stock market appears to move so randomly that most people don’t take it seriously as reflecting the real economy.

  2. Anonymous says

    “…while the economic situation and stock market improving…” YOU CAN’T BE SERIOUS! This Dow (at over 9,000) isn’t reflecting signs of a recovering economy but the artificially inflated effect of the administration’s massive ‘Stimulus’ money. This is invisible money which Congress has once again resorted to. Bascially, creating an even worst credit ‘Bubble’ because its financed through nothing but I.O.Us to foreign creditors.

    How can it escape anyone that our national debt is nearing $12 Trillions, unemployment is still rising and our GDP is still in decline?!
    This administration has veered off course from the true priority of fixing the economy. (Where are the high tech green jobs and industries?) It chose instead to promote another tax payer subsidized, currency devaluating program under the guise of health reform and cost control when it hasn’t shown the moral impetus to keep the lid on three of its existing, money-hemorhagging entitlement programs which is already projected to go broke by 2017.

    If the media care to turn their attention away from the right wing loons and political opportunist for a moment, they just may see how sizeable and eager indepedent, swing voters like me (who voted for Obama) are ready to show Dems and their cavalier out-of-control government spending the door!

    2010 can’t come soon enough.

  3. axt113 says

    ROFL, its way too early to try and say the Dems are going to lose 2010, the economy is already improving, people’s sentiment only improves once unemployment starts falling, that’s still a few months off, but GDP is expected to grow this quarter, and unemployment is nearing its peak, heck I wouldn’t be surprised if by next September the economy is adding jobs, and people are praising Obama for guiding us through the recession. If the economy is showing signs of improvement next September, then the Dems will cruise to another vicotry

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